PAGCOR Projects Up to 19 Percent Drop in Philippine Gaming Revenue for 2026
Alejandro Tengco, Chairman and CEO of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation, stated this week that the country's gaming sector faces a potential contraction in 2026, with gross gaming revenue projected to fall as much as 19 percent from the record level achieved in 2025. The forecast places next year's GGR in the range of Php320 billion to Php350 billion, down from Php396.1 billion recorded last year, and Tengco attributed the outlook primarily to rising cost pressures combined with effects from the ongoing Middle East conflict along with additional economic and market influences.
The 2025 figure marked an all-time high for the industry, yet Tengco's comments delivered in early June 2026 signal that operators and regulators alike must prepare for tighter conditions ahead. Data released through PAGCOR channels shows steady growth through the prior year, yet the new projection introduces a clear shift in trajectory that reflects external variables now weighing on the sector.
Breakdown of the Revenue Forecast
Tengco outlined the expected range during recent remarks, noting that the upper end of the decline could reach 19 percent while the lower end of the revenue band would still represent a meaningful reduction from 2025 results. The Php320–350 billion interval translates to roughly US$5.20–5.69 billion at current exchange rates, compared with the US$6.44 billion generated in the previous year. These numbers come directly from the agency's internal modeling, which incorporates both domestic cost trends and international developments that affect tourism and player spending patterns.
Observers note that the forecast covers the full calendar year 2026 and does not isolate quarterly performance, although Tengco referenced ongoing monitoring of Q1 2026 figures as part of the assessment process. The single news event centers on this statement rather than any broader policy announcements or new regulatory measures.
Primary Drivers Behind the Projection
Cost pressures form the first major factor cited by Tengco, encompassing higher operational expenses across licensed facilities and integrated resorts. These pressures include elevated utility rates, labor costs, and compliance requirements that have accumulated since the post-pandemic recovery period. The Middle East conflict adds a second layer, influencing global travel flows and discretionary spending among high-value players who often originate from or route through affected regions.
Additional economic and market factors round out the explanation, though Tengco did not enumerate them in detail during the statement. Industry participants have long tracked currency fluctuations, regional competition, and changes in consumer behavior, all of which can amplify or mitigate revenue outcomes depending on how they evolve through the remainder of 2026.
Context from 2025 Performance
Last year's Php396.1 billion total established a benchmark that surpassed previous peaks, driven by strong visitation and increased table and slot activity across both land-based and online channels. PAGCOR's official statistics confirm the figure as the highest annual GGR on record, yet the 2026 outlook indicates that sustaining that momentum may prove difficult under current conditions. Tengco's remarks position the projected decline as a realistic planning scenario rather than a worst-case estimate, giving operators time to adjust budgets and marketing strategies accordingly.
Those who follow the sector closely recognize that GGR calculations include winnings from all licensed gaming activities under PAGCOR oversight, encompassing casinos, electronic gaming sites, and sports betting platforms. The 2025 achievement reflected a broad recovery in international arrivals and domestic participation, setting a high bar for subsequent years.
Agency Response and Monitoring
PAGCOR continues to track revenue data on a monthly basis, and Tengco indicated that the agency will release updated figures as they become available throughout 2026. The statement serves as an early signal for stakeholders who rely on these numbers for investment decisions and operational planning. While no specific mitigation measures were detailed in the announcement, the agency maintains regular communication channels with licensees to address emerging challenges as they arise.
Linkages to broader economic indicators remain under review, with PAGCOR drawing on its own official GGR statistics and forecasts to inform the current projection. This approach allows the regulator to refine estimates as new information surfaces from both local operators and international sources.
Conclusion
Tengco's statement delivered in June 2026 provides a clear numerical framework for anticipating 2026 gaming revenue in the Philippines, anchored by the Php320–350 billion range and the potential 19 percent reduction from 2025 levels. The cited influences—cost pressures, the Middle East conflict, and wider economic conditions—offer context for why the record performance may not carry forward unchanged. As the year progresses, updated data from PAGCOR will show whether actual results align with or diverge from this forecast, giving the industry a measurable reference point for planning and adjustment.